Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 218.760584 263.666163 318.463958 391.262909 486.991093 6.108376e+02 7.870336e+02
2025-08-24 160.561707 210.422310 278.557716 381.615560 539.504705 7.832905e+02 1.212955e+03
2025-08-31 127.757940 177.093665 249.957995 370.968898 579.250176 9.506628e+02 1.742355e+03
2025-09-07 115.331006 168.186887 252.046866 404.382990 699.155789 1.312323e+03 2.943749e+03
2025-09-14 101.142067 152.991458 239.691334 408.268809 766.152979 1.613220e+03 4.374624e+03
2025-09-21 91.755777 143.450326 234.145451 422.138193 859.036886 2.040121e+03 6.879416e+03
2025-09-28 82.232897 131.877244 222.303943 419.578287 913.674466 2.413049e+03 1.005275e+04
2025-10-05 78.893958 130.528236 229.052863 458.416531 1092.280468 3.350997e+03 1.950994e+04
2025-10-12 75.144456 127.730064 232.247519 490.223478 1271.949292 4.542273e+03 3.920047e+04
2025-10-19 71.106464 123.710120 232.041460 513.733820 1443.068279 5.995614e+03 8.226221e+04
2025-10-26 66.814644 118.545476 228.348441 527.092877 1590.842154 7.649510e+03 1.800450e+05
2025-11-02 62.456815 112.653324 221.960902 531.188464 1709.366661 9.441463e+03 4.177625e+05
2025-11-09 57.415987 104.960062 210.688397 519.667984 1766.962243 1.106799e+04 1.009369e+06
2025-11-16 52.824507 97.713995 199.412615 505.405466 1807.910781 1.279371e+04 2.927678e+06
2025-11-23 48.743849 91.109964 188.687403 490.056494 1836.685810 1.462067e+04 1.172255e+07
2025-11-30 48.068109 91.863230 196.366568 538.093334 2241.657775 2.382935e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 45.563091 88.209822 192.113287 543.706017 2419.715237 3.137750e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 43.843790 86.155326 191.760348 563.803222 2719.585591 4.594526e+04 NaN
2025-12-21 41.424580 82.207206 185.643715 560.087737 2857.540911 5.902219e+04 NaN
2025-12-28 41.142354 83.288644 193.736408 616.721597 3551.282185 1.198752e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 40.448777 83.288919 198.765681 663.517050 4275.504448 2.497063e+05 NaN
2026-01-11 39.413606 82.322793 200.775857 698.337246 4981.039891 5.315877e+05 NaN
2026-01-18 38.066294 80.423054 199.623588 718.208012 5587.535754 1.122656e+06 NaN